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Our betting expert Jones Knows provides his insight as he analyses the weekend's FA Cup fourth-round action and makes a case for Birmingham to beat Newcastle.

Manchester United vs Leicester, Friday 8pm

This Manchester United team don't score goals.

Thank you, Captain Obvious!

They have scored just 28 goals in 24 Premier League matches this season to a per-90 average of 1.17 - only Leicester, Ipswich, Southampton and Everton average less.

A key issue stems from their inability to start games with any intent under Ruben Amorim.

Slow starts are setting the tone for the rest of the game.

The only first-half goal they have scored in their last 14 games in all competitions was Bruno Fernandes' penalty in the defeat to Brighton and, after going in level at the break against Palace, it is now 16 matches since this team led after 45 minutes.

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Firstly, it is an impossible metric to quantify so should be ignored when making betting decisions and there is evidence to support that making a cup final can actually harm your subsequent league form rather than boost it.

Just looking at the last six non-big-six teams to make the EFL Cup final and their results between their win in the second leg and the final does show a correlation of form loss.

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Brighton fit the bill following their 7-0 walloping at Nottingham Forest where they failed to do the basics of defending throughout the game.

There should be a reaction from them with their defensive output against a Chelsea team who have just dropped their own goal output of late, scoring just 1.4 goals per 90 in the Premier League across their last nine games0

Arne Slot's men are 4/1 second favourites with Sky Bet, with Manchester City priced up as the market leaders - that makes little sense.

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