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Why PSG's Champions League tie with Liverpool is far from over

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Liverpool may seemingly have one foot in the Champions League quarter-finals after last week's 1-0 win at Paris Saint-Germain but Arne Slot's side would be making a huge mistake if they were to underestimate the task facing them when the Ligue 1 champions visit Anfield for the return meeting on Tuesday night.

History is certainly against the Parisians when they travel to Merseyside this week.



Of the 27 previous teams to lose the first leg at home in a Champions League knockout tie, only three have progressed.



Meanwhile, on the seven occasions Liverpool have won the first leg away from home, they have gone on to win the return fixture three times, drawing twice and losing twice.



PSG should be warned, though, that even when the Reds did lose the second leg at Anfield, they still managed to make it through both times, in the last 16 against Barcelona in 2006/07 and Inter Milan in 2021/22.

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This was all borne out, of course, in a first leg that saw the hosts unleash 27 shots at Liverpool's goal, the second most on record (since 2003/04) by a side in a Champions League knockout match in which they both failed to score and lost.

Not only that, but last Wednesday's loss was PSG's first defeat in any game since November 26 and they arrive on Merseyside having failed to score just once in their 25 league outings this season, with even Slot conceding there was still plenty to play for at Anfield on Tuesday.

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"We know it's going to be a hard one in a week."

Good time to face fatigued Reds?

In contrast, Liverpool have been misfiring in attack of late and before Saturday's laboured win against bottom-of-the-table Southampton, they had not scored more than two in a match across their last seven, with an overall goals-per-game average of 1.57 and an expected goals average of just 1.22 per game.

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"PSG were better, they had one more player in midfield with their false nine and it was hard to press him," said Guardiola of how PSG like to outnumber their opponents in midfield.

When coupled with their monster pressing, including going man to man all over the pitch - which forced Virgil van Dijk to start pumping goal kicks downfield early on last Wednesday, rather than play out from the back as they normally do - then, as Slot acknowledged, PSG become almost impossible to stop.

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They are right, as the Parisians really do have nothing to lose at Anfield, and with only victory sufficing on the night, expect the visitors to adopt a similar approach to that which almost served them so well in the first leg last week.

All of which makes them a very dangerous opponent, as Reds captain Van Dijk was quick to point out after his side's first-leg win.

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