Kalshi traders make clear Liverpool verdict in latest Premier League title probabilities
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Prediction market traders on Kalshi believe that Liverpool is off the pace of the top three leading favorites to win the 2026-27 Premier League titleLiverpool are one of several top Premier League clubs to enter the season with a new manager(Image: Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)The 2026-27 Premier League campaign is just weeks away from kicking off, and Liverpool face an uphill battle to compete with the leading title contenders.That is the sentiment shared by traders on popular prediction market platform Kalshi, at least, who rate Liverpool fourth-favorites to lift the Premier League trophy come the spring of 2027.Andoni Iraola’s side is given a 13 percent chance to win the league, according to Kalshi traders. Unsurprisingly, that puts them behind reigning champions Arsenal, who lead the way with a 33 percent chance to successfully defend their title.Then comes the new-look Manchester City at 24 percent, who embark on a new journey under manager Enzo Maresca following Pep Guardiola’s departure from the club after 10 illustrious seasons.Chelsea have jumped Liverpool in the prediction market in recent weeks after bringing on Xabi Alonso as manager and signing attacking midfielder Morgan Rogers from Aston Villa on a deal worth a staggering $157 million.For nearly the entire month of July, Chelsea were rated below Liverpool but have now overtaken them, perhaps due to the Reds’ relative inactivity in the transfer market, although that could soon change with a deal for PSG and France winger Bradley Barcola in the works.Iraola and company are listed just ahead of Manchester United by Kalshi traders, who consider Liverpool a 13 percent shot for the title compared to a 12 percent chance for their biggest domestic rivals.Liverpool fans will be hoping for more out of Alexander Isak and Florian Wirtz this season(Image: Photo by Catherine Ivill - AMA/Getty Images)From there, Tottenham (five percent) and Aston Villa (three percent) are the only other clubs with a greater-than one percent chance on the prediction market.If Liverpool are to contend for the Premier League title in Iraola’s first season in charge, it will require a massive turnaround from a year ago.
The Reds came nowhere close to defending the league title they won in 2024-25 and finished in fifth place with just 60 points and 12 defeats.With Mohamed Salah out the door, Anfield faithful will be hoping for much-improved campaigns from last summer’s big-money signings Alexander Isak and Florian Wirtz, both of whom underwhelmed in their first season on Merseyside.Overall, there is plenty of uncertainty at the top of the table compared to in years past.Five of the ‘big six’ clubs enter the new season with a different manager than who they came into the 2025-26 campaign with.Arsenal are the only outlier of that group and look poised to defend their title, although several of their key players, including William Saliba and Declan Rice, are coming off injuries or big minutes at the World Cup.This information is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only and should not be relied upon for financial reasons or to determine a specific course of action. Information should not be used in violation of any law or regulation.
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