Supercomputer predicts each Premier League club’s Europa League fate after first leg results
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Credit: Imago Fri 13 March 2026 7:15, UK Both Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest were in action in the Europa League on Thursday, but had different experiences in the competition.Unai Emery’s side achieved a narrow 1-0 win away to Lille, with Ollie Watkins netting the only goal of the match.In comparison, Vitor Pereira’s wait for a win at the City Ground goes on after they suffered a surprise 1-0 defeat to Midtjylland thanks to a late Choe Gue-sung goal.Now, Football Insider has examined what Opta predicts will happen after Forest’s dire defeat and Villa’s impressive victory. ⚽ Nottingham Forest Matchday ⚽ Team news, line-ups, expert previews and tactical analysis for every Nottingham Forest fixture. VISIT THE FOREST MATCH HUB Nottingham Forest unlikely to make Midtjylland comebackAccording to Opta on 12 March, Forest are extremely likely to be knocked out of the Europa League after their first-leg defeat.
MORE FOOTBALL INSIDER STORIES The supercomputer has given the Reds a 21.62 per cent chance to make it into the quarter-finals, meaning a victory in Jutland is extremely unlikely.If they were to somehow achieve this, they have just a 10.13 per cent chance of progressing into the semi-finals, a four per cent chance of getting to the final, and a 2.07 per cent chance of winning the competition.In comparison, Villa remain heavy favourites to win the competition after their recent victory.Vítor Pereira’s reaction. 🗣️— Nottingham Forest (@NFFC) March 13, 2026 Emery’s side have a massive 91.04 per cent chance of seeing out their lead against Lille and reaching the quarter-finals. The odds of a semi-final appearance is 63.23 per cent, while the final is 43.7 per cent.
Villa’s chances of winning the competition are now 29.75 per cent, making them the overwhelming favourites.Is Vitor Pereira already under pressure at Nottingham Forest?Ex-Everton, Aston Villa, and Aberdeen chief executive Keith Wyness previously told Football Insider that Nottingham Forest will be unhappy with Pereria given his winless Premier League start.While he has since picked up an impressive point against Manchester City, the defeat to Midtjylland will have damaged his standing at the club.This next week could be vital for the manager, with a home match against Fulham followed by the second leg of their Europa League tie.Two defeats here, and the pressure could be seriously on Pereira, especially if they fall into the relegation zone.However, only time will tell if Evangelos Marinakis would be prepared to make yet another change this season as he looks to keep Forest in the Premier League. Don’t Miss a Beat: Your Nottingham Forest Insider Access Get the full story from the City Ground and the Forest Training Centre with our dedicated expert hubs: Updated 24/7 with expert analysis from the banks of the River Trent.